Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Occam's Razor and Conspiracy Theory

While watching a show about 9/11 conspiracies, I started thinking about conspiracies and why I am so reluctant to believe them. For the record, I don’t believe that either Kennedy assassination was a conspiracy, I don’t think Big Pharma is conspiring to cause autism with vaccines, I don’t think the moon landing was a hoax, and I don’t think historians invented the Holocaust to make the Nazis look bad.

Of course, I could be wrong.

But I’m probably not.

Because of Occam’s Razor.

Most people think of Occam’s Razor as the principle that the simplest answer is usually right, which is sort of what Occam said. I like Wikipedia’s succinct summary a bit better: the theory “generally recommends selecting the competing hypothesis that makes the fewest new assumptions, when the hypotheses are equal in other respects.”

The so-called Truthers of the 9/11 conspiracies make a whole bunch of unnecessary assumptions about the way the Towers fell. There are LOTS of things people can very legitimately criticize the United States government for (fraud, waste, abuse; stupidity; greed; underhanded dealings; being peopled with oversexed idiots) but when people argue that our government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks, they lead us on a merry chase into speculation, hyperbole, rhetorical flights of fancy, paranoia, and denial of facts.

Cold-blooded terrorists planned and executed an attack on the United States: that’s the simplest answer and it makes the fewest new assumptions.

Of course, I could be wrong.

But I’m probably not.

That’s the beauty of Occam’s Razor.

There’s been a lot of research done on why people come up with conspiracy theories when actual evidence is thin on the ground, and if I live long enough, I’d like to read some of it. I have, however, read a lot about autism, and particularly the vaccine issue. Lots of people continue to believe that vaccines cause autism, despite the ever-growing body of evidence to the contrary. The doctor who started the whole bru-ha-ha, Andrew Wakefield, has been thoroughly discredited, but parents whose children were recently diagnosed will still find scads of information about how damaging vaccines are all over the internet and by listening to celebrities on talk shows.

The rhetoric these sites and celebrities use to argue that vaccines cause autism is, at least superficially, convincing. It appeals to distraught parents on many levels, and many people defend Wakefield despite the rather (to my mind, at least) definitive evidence that he falsified patient records, tampered with test results, and did his testing in an uncertified lab with deeply faulty lab practices. Plus, no other licenced lab has been able to duplicate his results: the kiss of death according to the scientific method.

Unfortunately, the scientific world of mainstream medicine has failed to come up with a really good explanation of the cause of autism to counter the conspiracy theories. Science just can’t give parents a meaningful answer, so parents look for a nice, systematic answer elsewhere. And they find it in accusations of greed directed at Big Pharma...accusations that are at least credible given Big Pharma's history. Until science figures this one out, we parents have to muddle through as best we can, and I really can’t blame those who fall for the conspiracy theory. An answer, after all, is easier to live with than no answer at all.

What little I’ve read about conspiracy theories stresses the fact that our frontal lobes are really active places that like to make all sorts of connections between things; this is a large part of what separates us from, say, golden retrievers. We come up with systems—of government, of manufacturing, of law, of health, of education, and so forth—systems that allowed the Romans to build aqua ducts and Americans to build Apollo 11. I’d like to see a golden retriever do either of those things.*

Conspiracy theories are systems: increasingly elaborate and inherently attractive systems that give meaning, sometimes much greater meaning, to events. Our brains derive pleasure from knowing secrets, figuring out puzzles, and getting at “the truth,” so it’s not hard to see why people who are quite intelligent and reasonable get sucked into believing conspiracy theories. It’s fun to feel like we figured it out.

Furthermore, as much as we like to be right, we are even happier when we think everyone else--especially everyone in authority--is wrong.

Unless, of course, I am wrong.

But I’m probably not.

Because of Occam’s Razor.



*Please note that I’m not maligning golden retrievers, who are pretty special in their own ways. I’d like to see a human find a victim trapped under rubble or shed glorious fur all over someone to cheer them up. You really need a golden for those tasks. But a big frontal lobe is not a gift golden retrievers can claim, as any owner of a delightfully dopey golden will tell you.

8 comments:

  1. Wow, Susan - great post! For what it's worth, I think you're right!

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  2. I know people keep pounding out one study after another showing no link between vaccines and autism. However, my first baby received no vaccines until he was three and he does not have autism. The next two got everything as recommended, beginning with vaccines given at birth, two weeks, etc. They both have autism. The next two have not been vaccinated. They do not have autism. It's not double blind, it's not even scientific, but for my family it's enough evidence. Other people are blessed to shoot up their kids with bazillions of chemicals, fetal tissue and disease and have no autism and I am happy for them. For me, no more vaccines...

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  3. Carrie,

    The power of our personal experience is far more real to us than any double-blind study, isn't it? I got the flu when I was six weeks pregnant with Jack and am absolutely convinced that played a roll in his developing autism...I didn't get sick when I was pregnant with Nick. I have no scientific proof of anything, but my gut tells me that's what triggered it in him, combined with a genetic predisposition. One day, we might have answers, but until, then, let's just trust our guts.

    Hugs,
    Susan

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  4. Perhaps some need conspiracy theories because we "think" so much - Deborah's post yesterday was about how we are so tired because we have 50000 thoughts a day. (Go look if you want to smile , she has a gift of writing) I, of course, come no where near that as the tropics have slowed me down immensely.

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  5. I love a good conspiracy theory, whether I believe them or not is irrelevant, some are entertaining, some frightening, some sad, most are ridiculous, all give food for thought, a different perspective on things keeps us fresh, it’s all too easy to believe the stuff we are fed through TV and newspapers, I like to keep an open mind, and I believe, no matter how busy we are, we need to question those in authority to keep them on their toes and stop them getting complacent. So-called scientific studies always seem to favour the side that will make most profit, and sad though it is, money is more highly prized than human life in our society. My daughter was diagnosed as Autistic when she was 2, at 20 I was told she wasn’t autistic at all, never was and the new diagnosis is Schizophrenia. I have little faith in the medical profession and none in the drug industry. God save us from experts. I’m all for trusting our own instincts. Sorry if this sounds cynical, I can on speak from my own experience and hope that other people fair better.

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  6. Although I keep asking my kids to get me a new brain for Christmas (their lack of compliance so far is they haven't found one they think I'd like or that would fit and when they are really kissin up they say they'll miss their mother!!!), I am relieved to know at least part of my brain (the frontal lobe) is working. Now I know why I like conclusions, why I like to find out the connections between people and how they choose their careers, how they wound up in whatever town they live in(Daddy's job with the military led us around the world before we settled in NJ where I met my wonderful husband of 42 years). Connections are a marvelous thing...to family, to country and most importantly for me to God. Guess that's why I first fell in love with the Gospel of Luke...I could connect with the characters he described and they led me to Jesus. AS I read the other Gospels and Epistles I became curious about Jesus' connections to the Old Testament. I am still discovering new connections that help me grow in understanding of God's all-powerful, life-changing Word and it is an awesome journey.
    Thanks Susan for setting me out this morning to look for connections throughout the day...when you seek you shall find!!!

    blessings
    Patti MOffett

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  7. Me, I am a big fan of the razor. And vaccines. And scientific method.

    Well said, Susan.

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Thanks so much for taking time to comment!